Optimizing Processes with the Christmas Tree Framework
Introduction: Why Process Mapping Needs a New Perspective
As a consultant, I’ve seen businesses struggle to move from traditional process maps to system design or actionable insights. One additional challenge I faced was trying to build operational analytics dashboards — transforming a process map into KPIs and metrics at the process level. Process maps — like those created in Visio — focus on the “how” of a process, outlining the sequence of tasks and decision points. However, they often miss the critical “what” — the process objectives, waypoints, and milestones. Traditional process maps treat each box as just an activity, without showing the criticality of any particular step. They don’t capture the smaller outcomes needed during process execution, making it hard to identify which steps truly contribute to achieving the overall goals and where the value or risk lies.
In my experience, this disconnect often leads to frustration. These maps tend to reflect the strongest opinion or consensus, not the reality of what’s happening on the ground. They don’t capture how processes unfold in real-time, and that’s where process analytics comes in. It’s about bridging the gap between the perceived process and the real process.
That’s why I developed the Christmas Tree of Process Analysis — an alternative method that shifts the focus from “how” things are done to “what” is happening, and how it’s performing. When you overlay process mining data, like the insights found in Celonis, you gain a powerful visual representation that highlights process health and pinpoints pain points. More importantly, this approach allows for quick modeling of KPIs and metrics, giving immediate visibility into performance and creating a direct path to identifying where improvements are needed. It lays the foundation for a data-centric approach to process mapping and analysis, where decisions are driven by real-time data and actionable insights, rather than assumptions.
What is the Christmas Tree of Process Analysis?
The Christmas Tree of Process Analysis uses four distinct colors to categorize different types of steps in a business process:
Blue: Necessary Milestones — These are critical steps that must be completed for the process to continue. Think of these as the foundational blocks of your process.
Green: Efficient Progression — These steps are where the process moves smoothly with minimal delay or the best possible alternative in a given process context. Ideally, you want to keep as many of these steps as possible in the green zone.
Orange: Decision Points or Risk Factors — These steps introduce potential delays, as they often require human intervention or decisions that could slow down progress.
Red: Terminal States — These are blocks or failures in the process where things come to a halt, requiring corrective action before the process can continue.
The aim of this framework is to give businesses a clear, at-a-glance understanding of where their processes stand, helping them optimize workflows, manage risks, and drive efficiency.
Applying the Christmas Tree Framework to the Meter to Cash Process in Utilities
The Christmas Tree is a simplified visual representation of a process designed to communicate the natural flow of a given process. Above is the flow of the Meter to Cash process in a Utility.
When viewing this, keep in mind that the blue dots are milestones that the process must go through to progress to the next stage, green dots are events that can be considered as good direction in the context of where the process is at any given point in time. Oranges are the dots we’d like to monitor or avoid entirely if we can as they imply a decision point or a risk that needs to be managed while the reds are events that would need corrective action to get the process back on track.
So let’s see how this framework applies to the Meter to Cash process - the process utilities companies follow to bill customers based on meter readings. Here’s how we can break it down:
Let’s apply the Christmas Tree framework to a common business process: Meter to Cash, the process utilities companies follow to bill customers based on meter readings. Here’s how it can break down:
Meter Read Order Created (Blue) — Necessary Milestone: The starting point. Without this, the process can’t proceed.
Meter Read Not Received (Orange) — Risk/Decision Point: If the meter read is missing, it’s a point of failure or delay.
Meter Read Received (Green) — Necessary Milestone: The meter read is critical for billing to proceed.
Meter Read Estimated (Green) — Efficient Progression: Auto-estimation helps ensure billing continues when an actual reading isn’t available.
Estimation Exceeded (Orange) — Risk/Decision Point: Exceeding a threshold for estimated readings requires review.
Meter Reread (Orange) — Risk/Decision Point: A reread introduces the possibility of delays, especially if resources are limited.
Meter Read Implausible (Orange) — Risk/Decision Point: Implausible readings require review, potentially causing delays.
Implausible Resolved (Green) — Efficient Progression: Once resolved, the process moves forward without issues.
Meter Read Billed (Blue) — Necessary Milestone: Once validated, the billing document is generated.
Billing Document Created (Blue) — Necessary Milestone: The billing document must be created for the invoice to proceed.
Billing Document Outsorted (Orange) — Risk/Decision Point: If the document is flagged, it requires additional attention.
Billing Outsort Unresolved (Red) — Terminal State: If unresolved, the process stops here.
Invoice Doc Created (Green) — Efficient Progression: The invoice is generated smoothly once billing is processed.
Invoice Outsorted (Orange) — Risk/Decision Point: If flagged, it requires review before proceeding.
Invoice Outsort Unresolved (Red) — Terminal State: Unresolved outsorts stop the process.
Invoice Printed (Blue) — Necessary Milestone: The invoice is printed, ready for delivery.
Invoice Print Failed (Red) — Terminal State: A print failure requires immediate corrective action.
Customer Payment Received (Green) — Efficient Progression: Payment is received and processed without delay.
Payment Processing Complete (Blue) — Necessary Milestone: The payment is recorded, completing the process.
Why This Framework Works (And Why You Should Try It)
The Christmas Tree of Process Analysis has been a game-changer for me. It’s the kind of tool that helps you finally step back and take a good, hard look at how a process is truly performing, not just on paper but in real-time. For me, it has worked wonders for complex processes, and if I had to put my finger on how — here is how I would say it does:
Visualize Performance: You get to see right away what the ‘green zone’ of your process flow is. Where you’d want to be throughout the process and in a process mining sense, which process variants you’d want to keep and which ones you’d like to avoid.
Identify Bottlenecks: It is easy to spot where delays usually happen — like the credit check or other key steps requiring manual intervention. You’ll find these in a cluster around the orange zones of the process flow
Root Cause Analysis: When you hit a red state, the process comes to a halt meaning these are the events that would represent your process execution gaps. You didn’t get here cuz you wanted to! And these serve as a great place to begin your root cause analysis
Optimize Flow: Here’s the fun part: When creating analytics, you can begin to model metrics that orient towards good direction. These are easy to map out because you have a map of where you want the business to be headed
What really seals the deal, though, is process mining. When you combine this framework with data insights from Celonis, you unlock a whole new level of process understanding. By overlaying real-time data, I’ve been able to track exactly how the process is playing out and where it’s slowing down. It’s like finally turning on the lights in a dark room and realizing you’ve been stepping around the same pile of laundry forever. Once you know where the issues are, you can finally make data-driven decisions that get results.
For me, the Christmas Tree of Process Analysis was the key to shifting my focus from just “how” things are done to understanding the “what,” “when,” “how often,” and “how much.” It’s made a huge difference in how I approach process analysis — and I’ve seen real improvements in projects where traditional methods just didn’t cut it. This isn’t about replacing everything you’ve done; it’s about seeing your processes from a fresh perspective, one that’s more data-driven and action-oriented.
In the end, it’s not just a framework — it’s a way to get things done. Try it out, and you might just uncover a whole new level of process insight and efficiency.
